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December 19, 2014

President Obama is low in the polls because he has been high in productivity. So productive, in fact, that his is the most successful presidency in domestic policy since that of President Lyndon B. Johnson. That is the view of political scientist Seth Masket in a post titled Unpopularity and Productivity are Related at the MischiefsofFaction blog.  (Read it and the Matt Yglesias’s post detailing the president’s effectiveness that Prof. Masket credits as well).

Professor Masket points out that President Obama has pursued health care reform that has expanded coverage to millions of working Americans, helped to reform the financial sector, and taken action on student loans. His recent action on immigration will help to take four to five million undocumented immigrants out of the shadows. He has opened the door to Cuba. Mr. Yglesias adds that the president has advanced important environmental policies with no help from Congress.

Why so unpopular then? Prof. Masket argues that presidential popularity is largely tied to economic performance. When the president took office the economy was in the dumps, and for most of his term it was “just okay.” It has been much stronger lately but that hasn’t transferred. Perhaps that is because getting things done necessarily draws down the supply of political capital. That’s what we want a president to do isn’t it?

President Obama has suffered unrelenting attacks from Republicans over the Affordable Care Act, essentially national health care on a Republican model. Even some Democrats have criticized him for focusing on health care when the economy was in such dire shape. But just about every Democratic president since Harry Truman has made some effort to expand health care coverage and Senator Edward M. Kennedy made it a good part of his life’s work. It’s perhaps the last of the unfinished business of the New Deal. Give the man some credit.

Perhaps more could have been done to revive the economy. Paul Krugman has argued again and again that the stimulus needed to be larger to meet the emergency. Again, Congress wasn’t the greatest partner. Historically, as Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff show in this Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Follies, it takes years to recover from a financial collapse of the depth we experienced in 2008-2009.

Bottom line: why is President Obama so unpopular?

Because he has gotten so much accomplished.

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