2013 Boston Mayor

1. Marty Walsh’s campaign is confident; John Connolly’s organization is hopeful. Although Walsh is the frontrunner — and has been since the September primary — Connolly could still win. But that would depend on strong turnout.

2. Imagine a theoretical turnout of 125,000 voters, that’s 11,691 more than in the preliminary. The lower the turnout below that baseline, the greater Walsh’s margin of victory is likely to be. Above that baseline, Connolly’s chances of an upset increase proportionately.