With only days to go before next Tuesday’s special election, there's no clear favorite to be East Boston's next state representative.

For political observers outside of the district, the race is less about East Boston and more about who is backing which candidate. Both Boston Mayor Marty Walsh and Gov. Charlie Baker are seen as having favorites in the race.

One of the five Democrats running will win the primary — but not yet the seat. The heavily favored Democratic primary champion will then face an independent candidate in final election.

Two, maybe three, of the Democrats have done what it takes to win Tuesday’s prize. All six recently appeared at the Jeffries Point Neighborhood Association's Forum. Somehow, amidst huge snow and scant parking, a solid 50 people made it to the event, and many seemed genuinely uncommitted, a rarity at such events.

Of the Democrats, Ed Deveau spoke most forcefully and to the to point. A longtime staffer for the region's state senator, Anthony Petrucelli — a resume which he itemized in his remarks, because, as he told me after, "the race is really a job interview" — Deveau asserted that: "The budget is the issue. I've been through 13 of them. I know how to get an amendment into the budget. I don't think any other candidate in this race has my experience."

Adriano Madaro, who just finished four years as chief of staff to Carlo Basile, East Boston's prior representative, failed to match the granularity of Deveau's presentation. Madaro simply said, "As Rep. Basile's chief of staff, I've done the job. I'll be ready on day one."

No one in the room needed reminding that Basile is now Baker's appointments secretary — which is why the 1st Suffolk District is having this special election. By implication, Madaro is seen as the candidate most likely of to have the governor's ear.

Nor did anyone in the room need reminding that candidate Joe Ruggiero, an Orient Heights Funeral Home Director, has Walsh's ear. Baker and Basile haven't pushed their Madaro connection, but Walsh endorsed Ruggiero passionately, two weeks ago, at a reception attended by 300 people.

Ruggiero has pressed the point. At Jeffries Point, he spoke almost as if he were a mayor's aide: "I've done a lot of walking into small businesses, talking to them about permitting and licensing problems," said he, and, "We want to assure that we stay as a hard-working, blue-collar neighborhood." Sure enough, labor activists from all over have joined the Ruggiero effort. Recently, Walsh ally Felix D. Arroyo, attended by many members of Local 26 Hotel and Hospitality Workers, gave Ruggiero his own endorsement — well worth having in a district with many Hispanic voters.

Ruggiero has also strongly endorsed the Boston 2024 Olympics effort, a huge Walsh priority. The others in the field strike a pose of skeptical hopefulness.

Will Ruggiero's "I Am East Boston's Marty Walsh" campaign work? It might. His blue, yellow, and white house signs adorn dwellings all over East Boston, and he has raised $37,675, only slightly less than Madaro's $39,967. Walsh's labor activists know how to door-knock and how to get identified voters to the polls. Ruggiero will not lack for effective volunteers.

Still, Walsh's move might inspire voters who don't appreciate being "told who to vote for," as one supporter of a Ruggiero rival told me. Thus, the shrewdness of Madaro's strategy of "humbleness" — his choice of word. Madaro has the money and he knows every Basile voter. His mother, Debra Cave, is president of the Eagle Hill Civic (Eagle Hill covers about four precincts of East Boston's total of 14), and Madaro himself seems particularly well-liked in East Boston's "first section" — Maverick Square and everything east of it. He, Ruggiero, and Deveau all attended a charity concert at the fire house on Sumner Street about ten days ago, but as his two rivals stayed within their comfort zones, Madaro surfed the entire crowd, was known by many, and received a generally warm welcome.

Compared to Ruggiero's blunt “I Am Walsh” campaign and Madaro's quiet “I Have Charlie Baker's Ear” mantra, Deveau seems lacking a champion. But that may actually be an advantage. He has only raised $11,375 to date, but as his top operative told me, "It's enough to do what we have to do in this local of a campaign." He is right. Deveau has done several district-wide mailings and claims to have spoken to more voters directly than any of his competitors. He hasn't as many house signs as Ruggiero, nor are his bold white-on-dark-blue Deveau signs as widespread as Madaro's equally white-on-blue (with his name in smaller print, in keeping with the “humble” strategy) placards.

In a multicandidate race with five names on the ballot, the winner will be determined by who can get the most voters to the polls.

Still, Madaro seems to have the support of grass-roots East Boston factions that no rival has cracked: the anti-casino people, who won their casino referendum back in 2013; the No Boston Olympics people, who have good reason not to like a Walsh candidate; progressives who supported Don Berwick for governor last year; and the activists of the Eastie 2020, "life after Suffolk Downs" committee.

Except for the no-casino vote, these activists are a distinct minority – maybe one-quarter — of East Boston's potential 6,500 vote turnout, but they give Madaro a potential base of clearly defined voters.

And the other candidates?

Democrats Camilo Hernandez and Lou Scapicchio and independent Joanne Pomodoro also spoke and answered questions at the Jeffries Point forum.

Scapicchio — a distant relative of former City Councillor Paul Scapicchio — spoke well about waste and inefficiently in state government, and with credibility: He's an attorney in state service. With his known name and command of state spending issues, he has credibility. However, Scapicchio started late and has raised only $1,230.

Hernandez, an immigrant, spoke of his passion for citizenship. As a city-council employee he has demonstrated that he can master the process of government work, but he failed to articulate what he would do as a state representative.

Pomodoro simply introduced herself. Her time will come after the March 3 Primary.

Mike Freedberg is an occasional WGBH News contributor, and blogs at Here and Sphere.