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January 23, 2017

(Charles Dharapak/Associated Press)

A MassInc Polling Group/WBUR poll released on Monday revealed that Senator Elizabeth Warren is looking at some problematic numbers. It seems a lot of voters think Massachusetts can do better. Is Elizabeth Warren in trouble?

Here is the poll question and results:

We can all agree that those numbers look ugly, but can we agree on whether or not they mean anything? I don’t know, so I wish news stories would provide more context. For instance, is the ‘deserves reelection/give someone else a chance’ question predictive of future election results? I ask because the poll question jogged my memory of this one, from a Suffolk University/7News Poll on October 28, 2010:

There was a lot of additional bad news for Governor Patrick in that poll but it had him leading Charlie Baker by six points. Patrick held that lead on Election Day. It at least raises the issue of the relevance of the poll question, especially inasmuch as the Suffolk poll was published in the week before voters went to the polls and against known opponents, including Tim Cahill and Jill Stein as well as Baker.  Right now we are about twenty-two months from Warren having to face voters, with only Curt Schilling and Rick Green as potential Republican opponents.

Perhaps the bad headlines for Warren on Monday were the canary in the coal mine and she is weaker than many Democrats hoped. Or perhaps the results are a big Nothingburger.

Elizabeth, Warren

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